4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 12 at the 35

Atlanta Falcons 31 – Green Bay Packers 10

What Actually Happened

(4:25) 3-M.Bryant 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher.

The Three Options

GO +0.42 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 23, worth +4.53 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 35, worth -1.52 EP
KICK +0.74 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to make a 52-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.15 EP
  • 32% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 45, worth -2.21 EP
PUNT +0.04 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model