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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Green Bay Packers 4th & 5 at the 54

Green Bay Packers 10 – Atlanta Falcons 34

What Actually Happened

(1:25) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short middle to 17-D.Adams to ATL 47 for 7 yards (37-R.Allen).

The Three Options

GO -0.34 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +2.69 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 54, worth -2.98 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

PUNT -0.79 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 16, worth -0.79 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model