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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Green Bay Packers 4th & 7 at the 33

Green Bay Packers 10 – Atlanta Falcons 34

What Actually Happened

(12:50) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass deep left to 17-D.Adams for 33 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO +0.64 EP
What Happened
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 26, worth +4.23 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 33, worth -1.58 EP
KICK +0.74 EP
Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to make a 50-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.87 EP
  • 28% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 43, worth -2.19 EP
PUNT -0.19 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 11, worth -0.19 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model