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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 9 at the 44

Atlanta Falcons 34 – Green Bay Packers 23

What Actually Happened

(1:13) 5-M.Bosher punts 32 yards to GB 12, Center-47-J.Harris, downed by ATL-14-J.Hardy.

The Three Options

GO -0.42 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +1.06 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 44, worth -1.31 EP
KICK +0.24 EP
Model's Pick
  • 45% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.33 EP
  • 55% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 49, worth -1.50 EP
PUNT -0.25 EP
What Happened
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 12, worth -0.25 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.49 EP