Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Green Bay Packers 4th & 10 at the 88

Green Bay Packers 23 – Atlanta Falcons 34

(:48) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short middle to 80-M.Bennett to GB 30 for 18 yards (59-D.Campbell).

The Three Options

GO -1.16 EP

What Happened

39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 78, worth +0.31 EP
61% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 88, worth -2.12 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (105 yards).

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.67 EP