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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Green Bay Packers 4th & 13 at the 67

Green Bay Packers 7 – Atlanta Falcons 7

What Actually Happened

(:41) 8-J.Vogel punts 44 yards to ATL 23, Center-61-B.Goode. 19-A.Roberts pushed ob at ATL 27 for 4 yards (51-K.Fackrell). PENALTY on ATL-36-K.Ishmael, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at ATL 23. Penalty on ATL-34-B.Poole, Offensive Holding, declined.

The Three Options

GO -1.86 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.36 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 67, worth -3.91 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -1.32 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 25, worth -1.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model