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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 4 at the 69

Los Angeles Chargers 0 – Miami Dolphins 0

What Actually Happened

(13:37) 8-D.Kaser punts 49 yards to MIA 20, Center-47-M.Windt. 19-J.Grant to MIA 18 for -2 yards (34-D.Watt).

The Three Options

GO -0.80 EP
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +2.29 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 69, worth -3.80 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

PUNT -0.74 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 27, worth -0.74 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model