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Miami Dolphins

1-0 HC Adam Gase
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Los Angeles Chargers

0-2 HC Anthony Lynn
Sunday 2017-09-17 · 16:05 ET StubHub Center, Carson US ☀️ Clear Spread 3.5 O/U 46.5

Win Probability

MIA
39.0%
LAC
61.0%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: slight edge Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the full track record.

Key Insights

  • MIA offense: -0.071 EPA/play over its last 8 games (22nd in the league)
  • MIA defense: +0.034 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (25th in the league)
  • Jay Cutler (MIA): -0.113 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • MIA on 8 more days rest than LAC
  • LAC defense: +0.014 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (22nd in the league)
  • LAC offense: -0.019 EPA/play over its last 8 games (18th in the league)

New to these stats? NFL 101 Glossary →

Predicted Final Score

MIA 21 14–28
–
LAC 24 17–31
Projected margin: LAC by 3 Projected total: 45

The range under each score is this model's typical error on unseen games — ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat the bigger number as the middle of that range, not a precise call — see the full track record.

Injury Report — Week 2

MIA

Rey Maualuga LB Out Hamstring
Jarvis Landry WR Questionable Knee

LAC

Rayshawn Jenkins S Out Concussion
Jason Verrett CB Out Knee
Mike Williams WR Out Back
Jeremiah Attaochu DE Questionable Hamstring
Dontrelle Inman WR Questionable Groin
Sean McGrath TE Questionable Knee

Pulled fresh for 2017 week 2 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

MIA 19
–
LAC 17

Prediction missed by 5 pts on margin, 9 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 07:13 FG MIA (7:13) 1-C.Parkey 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-92-J.Denney, Holder-16-M.Haack. MIA 3 – LAC 0
  • Q2 13:46 FG LAC (13:46) 9-Y.Koo 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-M.Windt, Holder-8-D.Kaser. MIA 3 – LAC 3
  • Q2 05:05 TD LAC (5:05) 28-M.Gordon left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. MIA 3 – LAC 9
  • Q3 12:15 TD MIA (12:15) (Shotgun) 6-J.Cutler pass deep right to 10-K.Stills for 29 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIA 9 – LAC 10
  • Q3 08:24 TD LAC (8:24) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass short middle to 85-A.Gates for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIA 10 – LAC 16
  • Q3 02:48 FG MIA (2:48) 1-C.Parkey 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-92-J.Denney, Holder-16-M.Haack. MIA 13 – LAC 17
  • Q4 06:32 FG MIA (6:32) 1-C.Parkey 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-92-J.Denney, Holder-16-M.Haack. MIA 16 – LAC 17
  • Q4 01:10 FG MIA (1:10) 1-C.Parkey 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-92-J.Denney, Holder-16-M.Haack. MIA 19 – LAC 17

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 LAC 4th & 4 at the 69
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 49%

    (13:37) 8-D.Kaser punts 49 yards to MIA 20, Center-47-M.Windt. 19-J.Grant to MIA 18 for -2 yards (34-D.Watt).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 MIA 4th & 5 at the 12
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 95%

    (7:13) 1-C.Parkey 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-92-J.Denney, Holder-16-M.Haack.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 LAC 4th & 6 at the 61
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (3:48) 8-D.Kaser punts 58 yards to MIA 3, Center-47-M.Windt. 19-J.Grant pushed ob at MIA 12 for 9 yards (50-H.Pullard, 43-M.Davis).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 MIA 4th & 6 at the 84
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43%

    (1:31) 16-M.Haack punts 53 yards to LAC 31, Center-92-J.Denney. 12-T.Benjamin to MIA 46 for 23 yards (31-M.Thomas).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 LAC 4th & 4 at the 23
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43% p(FG) 86%

    (13:46) 9-Y.Koo 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-M.Windt, Holder-8-D.Kaser.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 MIA 4th & 6 at the 49
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 28%

    (9:06) 16-M.Haack punts 19 yards to LAC 30, Center-92-J.Denney, out of bounds.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 MIA 4th & 2 at the 58
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.50 EP
    p(convert) 58%

    (3:09) 16-M.Haack punts 58 yards to end zone, Center-92-J.Denney, Touchback.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 LAC 4th & 9 at the 25
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 84%

    (:35) 9-Y.Koo 43 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-47-M.Windt, Holder-8-D.Kaser.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 MIA 4th & 6 at the 52
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.37 EP
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 22%

    (:02) (Shotgun) 6-J.Cutler pass incomplete deep right to 10-K.Stills.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 MIA 4th & 10 at the 10
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 96%

    (2:48) 1-C.Parkey 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-92-J.Denney, Holder-16-M.Haack.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 LAC 4th & 13 at the 42
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 45%

    (13:36) 8-D.Kaser punts 23 yards to MIA 19, Center-47-M.Windt, downed by LAC.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 MIA 4th & 17 at the 17
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 21% p(FG) 92%

    (6:32) 1-C.Parkey 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-92-J.Denney, Holder-16-M.Haack.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 LAC 4th & 3 at the 75 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 55%

    (3:12) 8-D.Kaser punts 40 yards to MIA 35, Center-47-M.Windt. 19-J.Grant to MIA 49 for 14 yards (50-H.Pullard, 30-A.Ekeler).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 MIA 4th & 5 at the 36 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 61%

    (1:10) 1-C.Parkey 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-92-J.Denney, Holder-16-M.Haack.

    See the full breakdown →