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MIA Away

Miami Dolphins

HC Adam Gase
@
LAC Home

Los Angeles Chargers

HC Anthony Lynn
Sunday 2017-09-17 · 16:05 StubHub Center, Carson US ☀️ Clear Spread 3.5 O/U 46.5

Win Probability

MIA
40.1%
LAC
59.9%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • MIA offense: -0.071 EPA/play over its last 8 games (22nd in the league)
  • MIA on 8 more days rest than LAC
  • Jay Cutler (MIA): -0.113 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • Philip Rivers (LAC): +0.009 EPA/dropback in prior starts

Predicted Final Score

MIA 21
–
LAC 24
Projected margin: LAC by 3 Projected total: 45

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 2

MIA

Rey Maualuga LB Out Hamstring
Jarvis Landry WR Questionable Knee

LAC

Rayshawn Jenkins S Out Concussion
Jason Verrett CB Out Knee
Mike Williams WR Out Back
Jeremiah Attaochu DE Questionable Hamstring
Dontrelle Inman WR Questionable Groin
Sean McGrath TE Questionable Knee

Pulled fresh for 2017 week 2 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

MIA 19
–
LAC 17

Prediction missed by 5 pts on margin, 9 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 07:13 FG MIA (7:13) 1-C.Parkey 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-92-J.Denney, Holder-16-M.Haack. MIA 3 – LAC 0
  • Q2 13:46 FG LAC (13:46) 9-Y.Koo 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-M.Windt, Holder-8-D.Kaser. MIA 3 – LAC 3
  • Q2 05:05 TD LAC (5:05) 28-M.Gordon left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. MIA 3 – LAC 9
  • Q3 12:15 TD MIA (12:15) (Shotgun) 6-J.Cutler pass deep right to 10-K.Stills for 29 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIA 9 – LAC 10
  • Q3 08:24 TD LAC (8:24) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass short middle to 85-A.Gates for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIA 10 – LAC 16
  • Q3 02:48 FG MIA (2:48) 1-C.Parkey 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-92-J.Denney, Holder-16-M.Haack. MIA 13 – LAC 17
  • Q4 06:32 FG MIA (6:32) 1-C.Parkey 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-92-J.Denney, Holder-16-M.Haack. MIA 16 – LAC 17
  • Q4 01:10 FG MIA (1:10) 1-C.Parkey 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-92-J.Denney, Holder-16-M.Haack. MIA 19 – LAC 17

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 LAC 4th & 4 at the 69
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 49%

    (13:37) 8-D.Kaser punts 49 yards to MIA 20, Center-47-M.Windt. 19-J.Grant to MIA 18 for -2 yards (34-D.Watt).

  • Q1 MIA 4th & 5 at the 12
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 95%

    (7:13) 1-C.Parkey 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-92-J.Denney, Holder-16-M.Haack.

  • Q1 LAC 4th & 6 at the 61
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (3:48) 8-D.Kaser punts 58 yards to MIA 3, Center-47-M.Windt. 19-J.Grant pushed ob at MIA 12 for 9 yards (50-H.Pullard, 43-M.Davis).

  • Q1 MIA 4th & 6 at the 84
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43%

    (1:31) 16-M.Haack punts 53 yards to LAC 31, Center-92-J.Denney. 12-T.Benjamin to MIA 46 for 23 yards (31-M.Thomas).

  • Q2 LAC 4th & 4 at the 23
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43% p(FG) 86%

    (13:46) 9-Y.Koo 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-M.Windt, Holder-8-D.Kaser.

  • Q2 MIA 4th & 6 at the 49
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 28%

    (9:06) 16-M.Haack punts 19 yards to LAC 30, Center-92-J.Denney, out of bounds.

  • Q2 MIA 4th & 2 at the 58
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.50 EP
    p(convert) 58%

    (3:09) 16-M.Haack punts 58 yards to end zone, Center-92-J.Denney, Touchback.

  • Q2 LAC 4th & 9 at the 25
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 84%

    (:35) 9-Y.Koo 43 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-47-M.Windt, Holder-8-D.Kaser.

  • Q2 MIA 4th & 6 at the 52
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.37 EP
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 22%

    (:02) (Shotgun) 6-J.Cutler pass incomplete deep right to 10-K.Stills.

  • Q3 MIA 4th & 10 at the 10
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 96%

    (2:48) 1-C.Parkey 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-92-J.Denney, Holder-16-M.Haack.

  • Q4 LAC 4th & 13 at the 42
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 45%

    (13:36) 8-D.Kaser punts 23 yards to MIA 19, Center-47-M.Windt, downed by LAC.

  • Q4 MIA 4th & 17 at the 17
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 21% p(FG) 92%

    (6:32) 1-C.Parkey 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-92-J.Denney, Holder-16-M.Haack.

  • Q4 LAC 4th & 3 at the 75 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 55%

    (3:12) 8-D.Kaser punts 40 yards to MIA 35, Center-47-M.Windt. 19-J.Grant to MIA 49 for 14 yards (50-H.Pullard, 30-A.Ekeler).

  • Q4 MIA 4th & 5 at the 36 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 61%

    (1:10) 1-C.Parkey 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-92-J.Denney, Holder-16-M.Haack.