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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Miami Dolphins 4th & 2 at the 58

Miami Dolphins 3 – Los Angeles Chargers 10

What Actually Happened

(3:09) 16-M.Haack punts 58 yards to end zone, Center-92-J.Denney, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.20 EP
Model's Pick
  • 58% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 56, worth +1.98 EP
  • 42% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 58, worth -3.27 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

PUNT -0.70 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 18, worth -0.70 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.50 EP