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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 9 at the 25

Los Angeles Chargers 10 – Miami Dolphins 3

What Actually Happened

(:35) 9-Y.Koo 43 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-47-M.Windt, Holder-8-D.Kaser.

The Three Options

GO +0.98 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 16, worth +4.58 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 25, worth -0.62 EP
KICK +1.81 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 84% chance to make a 42-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.38 EP
  • 16% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 35, worth -1.09 EP
PUNT -0.11 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 11, worth -0.11 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model