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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Miami Dolphins 4th & 6 at the 52

Miami Dolphins 3 – Los Angeles Chargers 10

What Actually Happened

(:02) (Shotgun) 6-J.Cutler pass incomplete deep right to 10-K.Stills.

The Three Options

GO -0.09 EP
What Happened
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +0.87 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 52, worth -0.71 EP
KICK +0.28 EP
Model's Pick
  • 22% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +3.00 EP
  • 78% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 49, worth -0.46 EP
PUNT +0.01 EP
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 15, worth +0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.37 EP