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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 3 at the 75

Los Angeles Chargers 17 – Miami Dolphins 16

What Actually Happened

(3:12) 8-D.Kaser punts 40 yards to MIA 35, Center-47-M.Windt. 19-J.Grant to MIA 49 for 14 yards (50-H.Pullard, 30-A.Ekeler).

The Three Options

GO -1.16 EP
  • 55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 72, worth +1.00 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 75, worth -3.79 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

PUNT -1.13 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 32, worth -1.13 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model