4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 6 at the 61

Los Angeles Chargers 0 – Miami Dolphins 3

What Actually Happened

(3:48) 8-D.Kaser punts 58 yards to MIA 3, Center-47-M.Windt. 19-J.Grant pushed ob at MIA 12 for 9 yards (50-H.Pullard, 43-M.Davis).

The Three Options

GO -0.79 EP
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.60 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 61, worth -3.20 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

PUNT -0.48 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 20, worth -0.48 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model