Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Miami Dolphins 4th & 6 at the 84

Miami Dolphins 3 – Los Angeles Chargers 0

(1:31) 16-M.Haack punts 53 yards to LAC 31, Center-92-J.Denney. 12-T.Benjamin to MIA 46 for 23 yards (31-M.Thomas).

The Three Options

GO -2.58 EP

43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 78, worth +0.58 EP
57% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 84, worth -4.99 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (101 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model