4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 2 at the 56

Las Vegas Raiders 14 – New York Jets 7

What Actually Happened

(7:53) 7-M.King punts 46 yards to NYJ 10, Center-59-J.Condo, fair catch by 84-K.Raymond.

The Three Options

GO +0.39 EP
Model's Pick
  • 58% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.62 EP
  • 42% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 56, worth -2.68 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

PUNT -0.55 EP
What Happened
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 17, worth -0.55 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.94 EP