Win Probability
Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Key Insights
- NYJ offense: -0.205 EPA/play over its last 8 games (31st in the league)
- QB edge to LV: Derek Carr (LV) +0.115 vs Josh McCown (NYJ) -0.070 EPA/dropback
- LV offense: -0.088 EPA/play over its last 8 games (24th in the league)
Predicted Final Score
Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Injury Report — Week 2
NYJ
OAK
Pulled fresh for 2017 week 2 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.
Actual Result
Prediction missed by 18 pts on margin, 20 pts on total.
Scoring Summary
- Q1 04:58 TD LV (4:58) 4-D.Carr pass short left to 15-M.Crabtree for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYJ 0 – OAK 6
- Q2 13:00 TD LV (13:00) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass deep right to 15-M.Crabtree for 26 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYJ 0 – OAK 13
- Q2 09:15 TD NYJ (9:15) (Shotgun) 15-J.McCown pass deep right to 10-J.Kearse for 34 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYJ 6 – OAK 14
- Q2 03:11 FG NYJ (3:11) 7-C.Catanzaro 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-4-L.Edwards. NYJ 10 – OAK 14
- Q2 00:23 TD LV (:23) (Shotgun) 24-M.Lynch up the middle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYJ 10 – OAK 20
- Q3 07:14 FG NYJ (7:14) 7-C.Catanzaro 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-4-L.Edwards. NYJ 13 – OAK 21
- Q3 03:39 TD LV (3:39) (Shotgun) 84-C.Patterson up the middle for 43 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYJ 13 – OAK 27
- Q4 12:59 TD LV (12:59) (Shotgun) 30-J.Richard right end for 52 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYJ 13 – OAK 34
- Q4 12:32 TD LV (12:32) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short right to 15-M.Crabtree for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. NYJ 13 – OAK 41
- Q4 08:47 TD NYJ (8:47) (Shotgun) 15-J.McCown pass short middle to 10-J.Kearse for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LV-42-K.Joseph was injured during the play. His return is Probable. NYJ 19 – OAK 42
- Q4 00:29 FG LV (:29) 2-G.Tavecchio 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-J.Condo, Holder-7-M.King. NYJ 20 – OAK 45
Fourth-Down Decisions
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Q1 LV 4th & 5 at the 79Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 46%
(13:00) 7-M.King punts 55 yards to NYJ 24, Center-59-J.Condo. 84-K.Raymond to NYJ 35 for 11 yards (58-T.Adams). PENALTY on LV-16-J.Holton, Player Out of Bounds on Punt, 5 yards, enforced at NYJ 35.
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Q1 NYJ 4th & 8 at the 58Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 33%
(11:00) 4-L.Edwards punts 39 yards to LV 19, Center-42-T.Hennessy, out of bounds.
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Q1 NYJ 4th & 10 at the 43Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 28% p(FG) 43%
(2:42) 4-L.Edwards punts 28 yards to LV 15, Center-42-T.Hennessy, fair catch by 38-T.Carrie.
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Q2 LV 4th & 2 at the 56Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.94 EPp(convert) 58%
(7:53) 7-M.King punts 46 yards to NYJ 10, Center-59-J.Condo, fair catch by 84-K.Raymond.
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Q2 NYJ 4th & 1 at the 28Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.07 EPp(convert) 63% p(FG) 79%
(3:11) 7-C.Catanzaro 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-4-L.Edwards.
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Q2 LV 4th & 4 at the 69Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 48%
(2:00) 7-M.King punts 55 yards to NYJ 14, Center-59-J.Condo. 84-K.Raymond MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by LV-16-J.Holton at NYJ 4.
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Q3 NYJ 4th & 6 at the 22Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 33% p(FG) 88%
(7:14) 7-C.Catanzaro 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-4-L.Edwards.
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Q4 NYJ 4th & 12 at the 60Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 27%
(15:00) 4-L.Edwards punts 52 yards to LV 8, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 30-J.Richard to LV 21 for 13 yards (95-J.Martin).
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Q4 LV 4th & 10 at the 11 late-gameChose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 27% p(FG) 96%
(:29) 2-G.Tavecchio 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-J.Condo, Holder-7-M.King.