Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 5 at the 79

Las Vegas Raiders 0 – New York Jets 0

What Actually Happened

(13:00) 7-M.King punts 55 yards to NYJ 24, Center-59-J.Condo. 84-K.Raymond to NYJ 35 for 11 yards (58-T.Adams). PENALTY on LV-16-J.Holton, Player Out of Bounds on Punt, 5 yards, enforced at NYJ 35.

The Three Options

GO -1.66 EP

46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 74, worth +1.63 EP
54% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 79, worth -4.40 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (96 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model