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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 4 at the 69

Las Vegas Raiders 14 – New York Jets 10

What Actually Happened

(2:00) 7-M.King punts 55 yards to NYJ 14, Center-59-J.Condo. 84-K.Raymond MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by LV-16-J.Holton at NYJ 4.

The Three Options

GO -0.97 EP
Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.84 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 69, worth -3.55 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

PUNT -1.14 EP
What Happened
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 27, worth -1.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model