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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Jets 4th & 6 at the 22

New York Jets 10 – Las Vegas Raiders 21

What Actually Happened

(7:14) 7-C.Catanzaro 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-4-L.Edwards.

The Three Options

GO +0.97 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 16, worth +4.85 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 22, worth -0.94 EP
KICK +1.45 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 88% chance to make a 39-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.88 EP
  • 12% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 32, worth -1.63 EP
PUNT -0.14 EP
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model