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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Jets 4th & 8 at the 58

New York Jets 0 – Las Vegas Raiders 0

What Actually Happened

(11:00) 4-L.Edwards punts 39 yards to LV 19, Center-42-T.Hennessy, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.46 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.49 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 58, worth -3.40 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

PUNT -0.98 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 18, worth -0.98 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model