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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Jets 4th & 10 at the 43

New York Jets 0 – Las Vegas Raiders 7

What Actually Happened

(2:42) 4-L.Edwards punts 28 yards to LV 15, Center-42-T.Hennessy, fair catch by 38-T.Carrie.

The Three Options

GO -0.80 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 33, worth +3.57 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 43, worth -2.50 EP
KICK -1.01 EP
  • 43% chance to make a 60-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.66 EP
  • 57% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 49, worth -3.02 EP
PUNT -0.55 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 12, worth -0.55 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model