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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 18 at the 49

Philadelphia Eagles 3 – Kansas City Chiefs 3

What Actually Happened

(10:24) 8-D.Jones punts 49 yards to end zone, Center-45-R.Lovato, Touchback. PENALTY on PHI-54-K.Grugier-Hill, Tripping, 10 yards, enforced at KC 20.

The Three Options

GO -1.41 EP
  • 23% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 31, worth +3.77 EP
  • 77% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 49, worth -2.99 EP
KICK -1.74 EP
  • 28% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.57 EP
  • 72% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 49, worth -3.00 EP
PUNT -0.73 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 14, worth -0.73 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model