PHI @ KC — 4th & Data

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Kansas City Chiefs

2-0 HC Andy Reid

Sunday 2017-09-17 · 13:00 ET Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City US ☀️ Clear Spread 4.0 O/U 46.5

Win Probability

PHI

30.8%

69.2%

☀️ Clear

Confidence: clear edge Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the full track record.

Key Insights

KC offense: +0.058 EPA/play over its last 8 games (7th in the league)
PHI defense: +0.038 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (26th in the league)
QB edge to KC: Alex Smith (KC) +0.113 vs Carson Wentz (PHI) -0.026 EPA/dropback
PHI offense: -0.041 EPA/play over its last 8 games (20th in the league)
KC defense: -0.017 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (15th in the league)
KC on 3 more days rest than PHI

New to these stats? NFL 101 Glossary →

Predicted Final Score

PHI 20 13–27

–

KC 27 20–34

Projected margin: KC by 7 Projected total: 47

The range under each score is this model's typical error on unseen games — ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat the bigger number as the middle of that range, not a precise call — see the full track record.

Injury Report — Week 2

PHI

Ronald Darby CB Out Ankle

Destiny Vaeao DT Out Wrist

Corey Graham S Questionable Hamstring

KC

Parker Ehinger G Doubtful Knee

Reggie Ragland LB Doubtful Knee

Ron Parker S Questionable Ankle

Kevin Pierre-Louis LB Questionable Illness

Pulled fresh for 2017 week 2 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

PHI 20

–

KC 27

Prediction missed by 0 pts on margin, 0 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

Q1 11:26 FG KC (11:26) 5-C.Santos 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt. PHI 0 – KC 3
Q1 04:32 FG PHI (4:32) 4-J.Elliott 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-8-D.Jones. PHI 3 – KC 3
Q2 00:21 FG KC (:21) 5-C.Santos 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt. PHI 3 – KC 6
Q3 04:14 TD PHI (4:14) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass short left to 17-A.Jeffery to KC 1 for 15 yards (23-P.Gaines). Philadelphia challenged the runner was down by contact ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass short left to 17-A.Jeffery for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on KC-23-P.Gaines, Defensive Holding, declined. PHI 9 – KC 6
Q3 01:30 TD KC (1:30) (Shotgun) 27-K.Hunt up the middle for 53 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on KC-87-T.Kelce, Taunting, 15 yards, enforced between downs. PHI 10 – KC 12
Q4 11:57 FG PHI (11:57) 4-J.Elliott 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-8-D.Jones. PHI 13 – KC 13
Q4 06:32 TD KC (6:32) (Shotgun) 11-A.Smith pass short middle to 87-T.Kelce for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PHI 13 – KC 19
Q4 02:20 TD KC (2:20) (Shotgun) 27-K.Hunt up the middle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the score ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. PHI 13 – KC 26
Q4 00:14 TD PHI (:14) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass short middle to 13-N.Agholor for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PHI 19 – KC 27

Fourth-Down Decisions

Q1 KC 4th & 4 at the 16

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 44% p(FG) 93%

(11:26) 5-C.Santos 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.
See the full breakdown →
Q1 PHI 4th & 7 at the 16

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 33% p(FG) 93%

(4:32) 4-J.Elliott 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-8-D.Jones.
See the full breakdown →
Q1 KC 4th & 8 at the 39

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 36% p(FG) 53%

(:32) 2-D.Colquitt punts 39 yards to end zone, Center-41-J.Winchester, Touchback.
See the full breakdown →
Q2 PHI 4th & 18 at the 49

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 23% p(FG) 28%

(10:24) 8-D.Jones punts 49 yards to end zone, Center-45-R.Lovato, Touchback. PENALTY on PHI-54-K.Grugier-Hill, Tripping, 10 yards, enforced at KC 20.
See the full breakdown →
Q2 KC 4th & 6 at the 54

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 42%

(5:12) 2-D.Colquitt punts 47 yards to PHI 7, Center-41-J.Winchester, fair catch by 43-D.Sproles.
See the full breakdown →
Q2 PHI 4th & 19 at the 86

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 26%

(2:31) 8-D.Jones punts 49 yards to KC 37, Center-45-R.Lovato, out of bounds.
See the full breakdown →
Q2 KC 4th & 8 at the 61

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 38%

(1:21) 2-D.Colquitt punts 51 yards to PHI 10, Center-41-J.Winchester. 43-D.Sproles to PHI 20 for 10 yards (41-J.Winchester). FUMBLES (41-J.Winchester), RECOVERED by KC-42-A.Sherman at PHI 24. 42-A.Sherman to PHI 24 for no gain (95-M.Kendricks).
See the full breakdown →
Q2 KC 4th & 7 at the 21

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 36% p(FG) 89%

(:21) 5-C.Santos 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.
See the full breakdown →
Q3 PHI 4th & 7 at the 42

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 36% p(FG) 45%

(12:49) 8-D.Jones punts 29 yards to KC 13, Center-45-R.Lovato, fair catch by 10-T.Hill.
See the full breakdown →
Q3 KC 4th & 13 at the 49

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 30% p(FG) 28%

(8:36) 2-D.Colquitt punts 30 yards to PHI 19, Center-41-J.Winchester, fair catch by 43-D.Sproles.
See the full breakdown →
Q4 PHI 4th & 7 at the 22

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 33% p(FG) 88%

(11:57) 4-J.Elliott 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-8-D.Jones.
See the full breakdown →
Q4 KC 4th & 4 at the 60

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 50%

(11:02) 2-D.Colquitt punts 60 yards to end zone, Center-41-J.Winchester, Touchback.
See the full breakdown →
Q4 PHI 4th & 13 at the 78

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 31%

(5:33) 8-D.Jones punts 42 yards to KC 36, Center-45-R.Lovato. 10-T.Hill to KC 44 for 8 yards (33-D.McDougle).
See the full breakdown →

Philadelphia Eagles