Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 19 at the 86

Philadelphia Eagles 3 – Kansas City Chiefs 3

(2:31) 8-D.Jones punts 49 yards to KC 37, Center-45-R.Lovato, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -3.37 EP

26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 67, worth +1.46 EP
74% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 86, worth -5.09 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (103 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model