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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 7 at the 21

Kansas City Chiefs 3 – Philadelphia Eagles 3

What Actually Happened

(:21) 5-C.Santos 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.

The Three Options

GO +1.36 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 14, worth +4.10 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 21, worth -0.15 EP
KICK +2.42 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 89% chance to make a 38-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.80 EP
  • 11% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 31, worth -0.54 EP
PUNT -0.05 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth -0.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model