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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 4 at the 16

Kansas City Chiefs 0 – Philadelphia Eagles 0

What Actually Happened

(11:26) 5-C.Santos 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.

The Three Options

GO +2.19 EP
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 12, worth +5.30 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 16, worth -0.25 EP
KICK +2.21 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 93% chance to make a 33-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.42 EP
  • 7% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 26, worth -0.65 EP
PUNT +0.30 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth +0.30 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model