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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 4 at the 60

Kansas City Chiefs 13 – Philadelphia Eagles 13

What Actually Happened

(11:02) 2-D.Colquitt punts 60 yards to end zone, Center-41-J.Winchester, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.30 EP
Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 56, worth +2.38 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 60, worth -2.95 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

PUNT -0.59 EP
What Happened
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 19, worth -0.59 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model