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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 13 at the 78

Philadelphia Eagles 13 – Kansas City Chiefs 20

What Actually Happened

(5:33) 8-D.Jones punts 42 yards to KC 36, Center-45-R.Lovato. 10-T.Hill to KC 44 for 8 yards (33-D.McDougle).

The Three Options

GO -2.62 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.27 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 78, worth -4.34 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (95 yards).

PUNT -1.47 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 35, worth -1.47 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model