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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 7 at the 16

Philadelphia Eagles 0 – Kansas City Chiefs 3

What Actually Happened

(4:32) 4-J.Elliott 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-8-D.Jones.

The Three Options

GO +1.07 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 9, worth +5.26 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 16, worth -0.96 EP
KICK +1.45 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 93% chance to make a 33-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.66 EP
  • 7% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 26, worth -1.42 EP
PUNT -0.38 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth -0.38 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model