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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 7 at the 48

San Francisco 49ers 0 – Seattle Seahawks 6

What Actually Happened

(7:55) 5-B.Pinion punts 29 yards to SEA 19, Center-86-K.Nelson, fair catch by 16-T.Lockett.

The Three Options

GO -0.81 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 41, worth +2.83 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 48, worth -2.70 EP
KICK -1.58 EP
  • 26% chance to make a 65-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.66 EP
  • 74% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 49, worth -2.72 EP
PUNT -0.52 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 14, worth -0.52 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model