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San Francisco 49ers

HC Kyle Shanahan
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Seattle Seahawks

HC Pete Carroll
Sunday 2017-09-17 · 16:25 CenturyLink Field, Seattle US 🌧 Rain Spread 13.5 O/U 42.0

Win Probability

SF
27.7%
SEA
72.3%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • SF offense: -0.145 EPA/play over its last 8 games (28th in the league)
  • SEA defense: -0.064 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (10th in the league)
  • Brian Hoyer (SF): -0.046 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • SF defense: +0.071 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (29th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

SF 17
–
SEA 25
Projected margin: SEA by 8 Projected total: 42

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 2

SF

Reuben Foster LB Out Ankle
Jimmie Ward S Questionable Hamstring

SEA

Terence Garvin LB Doubtful Shoulder
Richard Sherman CB Questionable Hamstring

Pulled fresh for 2017 week 2 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

SF 9
–
SEA 12

Prediction missed by 5 pts on margin, 21 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 08:41 FG SEA (8:41) 7-B.Walsh 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-9-J.Ryan. SF 0 – SEA 3
  • Q1 00:53 FG SEA (:53) 7-B.Walsh 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-9-J.Ryan. SF 0 – SEA 6
  • Q2 02:00 FG SF (2:00) 9-R.Gould 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-K.Nelson, Holder-5-B.Pinion. SF 3 – SEA 6
  • Q2 00:22 FG SF (:22) 9-R.Gould 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-K.Nelson, Holder-5-B.Pinion. SF 6 – SEA 6
  • Q4 11:40 FG SF (11:40) 9-R.Gould 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-K.Nelson, Holder-5-B.Pinion. SF 9 – SEA 6
  • Q4 07:13 TD SEA (7:13) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short left to 10-P.Richardson for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN [99-D.Buckner]. SF 9 – SEA 12

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 SEA 4th & 1 at the 41
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 69% p(FG) 43%

    (10:53) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson left end ran ob at SF 32 for 9 yards (29-J.Tartt).

  • Q1 SEA 4th & 7 at the 7
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 97%

    (8:41) 7-B.Walsh 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-9-J.Ryan.

  • Q1 SF 4th & 1 at the 66
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.70 EP
    p(convert) 68%

    (7:15) 5-B.Pinion punts 49 yards to SEA 17, Center-86-K.Nelson, fair catch by 16-T.Lockett.

  • Q1 SEA 4th & 9 at the 82
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (5:50) 9-J.Ryan punts 54 yards to SF 28, Center-69-T.Ott. 81-T.Taylor to SF 39 for 11 yards (41-D.McDonald).

  • Q1 SEA 4th & 9 at the 9
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 96%

    (:53) 7-B.Walsh 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-9-J.Ryan.

  • Q2 SF 4th & 3 at the 50
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.56 EP
    p(convert) 48% p(FG) 22%

    (13:40) 5-B.Pinion punts 47 yards to SEA 3, Center-86-K.Nelson, downed by SF-30-A.Jackson.

  • Q2 SEA 4th & 8 at the 71
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (9:58) 9-J.Ryan punts 57 yards to SF 14, Center-69-T.Ott. 81-T.Taylor to SF 35 for 21 yards (30-B.McDougald).

  • Q2 SF 4th & 7 at the 48
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 26%

    (7:55) 5-B.Pinion punts 29 yards to SEA 19, Center-86-K.Nelson, fair catch by 16-T.Lockett.

  • Q2 SEA 4th & 7 at the 48
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 26%

    (4:39) 9-J.Ryan punts 37 yards to SF 11, Center-69-T.Ott, fair catch by 81-T.Taylor.

  • Q2 SF 4th & 10 at the 22
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 86%

    (2:00) 9-R.Gould 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-K.Nelson, Holder-5-B.Pinion.

  • Q2 SEA 4th & 3 at the 68
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 55%

    (1:07) 9-J.Ryan punts 44 yards to SF 24, Center-69-T.Ott. 81-T.Taylor pushed ob at SF 32 for 8 yards (30-B.McDougald).

  • Q2 SF 4th & 1 at the 19
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 62% p(FG) 90%

    (:22) 9-R.Gould 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-K.Nelson, Holder-5-B.Pinion.

  • Q3 SF 4th & 6 at the 58
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (12:08) 5-B.Pinion punts 45 yards to SEA 13, Center-86-K.Nelson. 16-T.Lockett pushed ob at SEA 13 for no gain (44-K.Juszczyk). PENALTY on SEA-28-J.Coleman, Offensive Holding, 6 yards, enforced at SEA 13.

  • Q3 SEA 4th & 6 at the 40
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 46%

    (6:59) 9-J.Ryan punts 34 yards to SF 6, Center-69-T.Ott, downed by SEA-26-S.Griffin.

  • Q3 SF 4th & 5 at the 89
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45%

    (4:56) 5-B.Pinion punts 47 yards to SEA 42, Center-86-K.Nelson, out of bounds.

  • Q3 SEA 4th & 11 at the 59
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (3:57) 9-J.Ryan punts 46 yards to SF 13, Center-69-T.Ott, fair catch by 81-T.Taylor.

  • Q3 SF 4th & 6 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (1:33) 5-B.Pinion punts 39 yards to SEA 33, Center-86-K.Nelson. 16-T.Lockett to SEA 33 for no gain (38-A.Colbert).

  • Q3 SEA 4th & 10 at the 67
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (:41) 9-J.Ryan punts 37 yards to SF 30, Center-69-T.Ott, out of bounds.

  • Q4 SF 4th & 6 at the 16
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 92%

    (11:40) 9-R.Gould 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-K.Nelson, Holder-5-B.Pinion.

  • Q4 SF 4th & 3 at the 73 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 51%

    (4:59) 5-B.Pinion punts 51 yards to SEA 22, Center-86-K.Nelson. 16-T.Lockett to SEA 22 for no gain (31-R.Mostert). PENALTY on SEA-26-S.Griffin, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at SEA 22.