Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 6 at the 58

San Francisco 49ers 6 – Seattle Seahawks 6

What Actually Happened

(12:08) 5-B.Pinion punts 45 yards to SEA 13, Center-86-K.Nelson. 16-T.Lockett pushed ob at SEA 13 for no gain (44-K.Juszczyk). PENALTY on SEA-28-J.Coleman, Offensive Holding, 6 yards, enforced at SEA 13.

The Three Options

GO -1.17 EP

38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +2.41 EP
62% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 58, worth -3.34 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model