Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 11 at the 59

Seattle Seahawks 6 – San Francisco 49ers 6

(3:57) 9-J.Ryan punts 46 yards to SF 13, Center-69-T.Ott, fair catch by 81-T.Taylor.

The Three Options

GO -0.89 EP

33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +3.01 EP
67% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 59, worth -2.78 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model