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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 1 at the 41

Seattle Seahawks 0 – San Francisco 49ers 0

What Actually Happened

(10:53) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson left end ran ob at SF 32 for 9 yards (29-J.Tartt).

The Three Options

GO +1.97 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +3.61 EP
  • 31% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 41, worth -1.71 EP
KICK -0.35 EP
  • 43% chance to make a 58-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.44 EP
  • 57% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.50 EP
PUNT +0.21 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 12, worth +0.21 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model