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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 6 at the 16

San Francisco 49ers 6 – Seattle Seahawks 6

What Actually Happened

(11:40) 9-R.Gould 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-K.Nelson, Holder-5-B.Pinion.

The Three Options

GO +0.73 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 10, worth +5.06 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 16, worth -1.37 EP
KICK +0.98 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 92% chance to make a 33-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.21 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 26, worth -1.81 EP
PUNT -0.96 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth -0.96 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model