Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 3 at the 73

San Francisco 49ers 9 – Seattle Seahawks 12

What Actually Happened

(4:59) 5-B.Pinion punts 51 yards to SEA 22, Center-86-K.Nelson. 16-T.Lockett to SEA 22 for no gain (31-R.Mostert). PENALTY on SEA-26-S.Griffin, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at SEA 22.

The Three Options

GO -1.35 EP

51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.10 EP
49% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 73, worth -3.94 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model