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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 7 at the 7

Seattle Seahawks 0 – San Francisco 49ers 0

What Actually Happened

(8:41) 7-B.Walsh 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-9-J.Ryan.

The Three Options

GO +2.42 EP
Model's Pick
  • 33% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.37 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 7, worth +0.45 EP
KICK +2.35 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 24-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.44 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.33 EP
PUNT +0.30 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.30 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model