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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 1 at the 66

San Francisco 49ers 0 – Seattle Seahawks 3

What Actually Happened

(7:15) 5-B.Pinion punts 49 yards to SEA 17, Center-86-K.Nelson, fair catch by 16-T.Lockett.

The Three Options

GO -0.42 EP
Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.19 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 66, worth -3.86 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -1.12 EP
What Happened
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 24, worth -1.12 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.70 EP