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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 12 at the 14

Los Angeles Rams 7 – Washington Commanders 13

What Actually Happened

(3:07) 4-G.Zuerlein 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker.

The Three Options

GO +1.15 EP
  • 22% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 2, worth +6.32 EP
  • 78% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 14, worth -0.30 EP
KICK +2.24 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 95% chance to make a 31-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.40 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 24, worth -0.60 EP
PUNT -0.28 EP
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.28 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model