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Washington Commanders

HC Jay Gruden
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Los Angeles Rams

HC Sean McVay
Sunday 2017-09-17 · 16:25 Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum, Los Angeles US ☀️ Clear Spread 3.0 O/U 45.5

Win Probability

WAS
74.8%
LA
25.2%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • LA offense: -0.321 EPA/play over its last 8 games (32nd in the league)
  • QB edge to WAS: Jared Goff (LA) -0.291 vs Kirk Cousins (WAS) +0.169 EPA/dropback
  • WAS offense: +0.084 EPA/play over its last 8 games (5th in the league)
  • LA defense: -0.034 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (11th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

WAS 25
–
LA 17
Projected margin: WAS by 8 Projected total: 42

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 2

WAS

Josh Doctson WR Questionable Hamstring

LA

Kayvon Webster CB Questionable Shoulder

Pulled fresh for 2017 week 2 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

WAS 27
–
LA 20

Prediction missed by 1 pts on margin, 5 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 04:48 FG WAS (4:48) 3-D.Hopkins 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Holder-5-T.Way. Penalty on LA-90-M.Brockers, Illegal Formation, declined. WAS 3 – LA 0
  • Q2 15:00 TD WAS (15:00) (Shotgun) 25-C.Thompson left end for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the score ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. WAS 9 – LA 0
  • Q2 12:10 FG WAS (12:10) 3-D.Hopkins 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Holder-5-T.Way. WAS 13 – LA 0
  • Q2 10:04 TD LA (10:04) 30-T.Gurley up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. WAS 13 – LA 6
  • Q2 03:07 FG LA (3:07) 4-G.Zuerlein 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker. WAS 13 – LA 10
  • Q2 01:56 TD WAS (1:56) (Shotgun) 25-C.Thompson up the middle for 61 yards, TOUCHDOWN. WAS 19 – LA 10
  • Q3 08:54 TD LA (8:54) 16-J.Goff pass short left to 30-T.Gurley for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN. WAS 20 – LA 16
  • Q4 07:21 FG LA (7:21) 4-G.Zuerlein 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker. WAS 20 – LA 20
  • Q4 01:55 TD WAS (1:55) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short left to 14-R.Grant for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the score ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. WAS 26 – LA 20

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 LA 4th & 8 at the 54
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (12:14) 6-J.Hekker punts 33 yards to WAS 21, Center-44-J.McQuaide, out of bounds.

  • Q1 WAS 4th & 8 at the 22
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 88%

    (4:48) 3-D.Hopkins 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Holder-5-T.Way. Penalty on LA-90-M.Brockers, Illegal Formation, declined.

  • Q1 LA 4th & 2 at the 90
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.52 EP
    p(convert) 58%

    (3:22) 6-J.Hekker punts 55 yards to WAS 35, Center-44-J.McQuaide. 80-J.Crowder to WAS 35 for no gain (24-B.Countess).

  • Q2 WAS 4th & 4 at the 4
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.71 EP
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 98%

    (12:10) 3-D.Hopkins 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Holder-5-T.Way.

  • Q2 WAS 4th & 20 at the 74
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26%

    (7:29) 5-T.Way punts 54 yards to LA 20, Center-57-N.Sundberg. 11-T.Austin to LA 32 for 12 yards (22-D.Everett).

  • Q2 LA 4th & 12 at the 14
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 22% p(FG) 95%

    (3:07) 4-G.Zuerlein 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker.

  • Q2 LA 4th & 16 at the 81
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25%

    (1:23) 6-J.Hekker punts 49 yards to WAS 32, Center-44-J.McQuaide. 80-J.Crowder to WAS 45 for 13 yards (86-D.Carrier).

  • Q2 WAS 4th & 4 at the 49
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48% p(FG) 31%

    (:24) 5-T.Way punts 47 yards to LA 2, Center-57-N.Sundberg. 22-T.Johnson pushed ob at LA 8 for 6 yards (57-N.Sundberg).

  • Q3 WAS 4th & 13 at the 63
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (12:13) 5-T.Way punts 62 yards to LA 1, Center-57-N.Sundberg. 11-T.Austin to LA 7 for 6 yards (22-D.Everett).

  • Q3 WAS 4th & 7 at the 33
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 70%

    (3:39) 3-D.Hopkins 51 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Right Upright, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Holder-5-T.Way.

  • Q3 LA 4th & 2 at the 51
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.32 EP
    p(convert) 53% p(FG) 26%

    (2:39) 6-J.Hekker punts 45 yards to WAS 6, Center-44-J.McQuaide, downed by LA-58-C.Littleton.

  • Q4 WAS 4th & 4 at the 76
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 51%

    (14:51) 5-T.Way punts 41 yards to LA 35, Center-57-N.Sundberg. 11-T.Austin to LA 42 for 7 yards (22-D.Everett). PENALTY on LA-43-J.Johnson, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at LA 35.

  • Q4 LA 4th & 6 at the 45
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 40%

    (10:05) (Punt formation) 6-J.Hekker pass short left to 83-J.Reynolds to WAS 17 for 28 yards (80-J.Crowder).

  • Q4 LA 4th & 15 at the 22
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 20% p(FG) 88%

    (7:21) 4-G.Zuerlein 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker.