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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 16 at the 81

Los Angeles Rams 10 – Washington Commanders 20

What Actually Happened

(1:23) 6-J.Hekker punts 49 yards to WAS 32, Center-44-J.McQuaide. 80-J.Crowder to WAS 45 for 13 yards (86-D.Carrier).

The Three Options

GO -2.64 EP
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.87 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 81, worth -4.10 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (98 yards).

PUNT -1.16 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 38, worth -1.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model