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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 8 at the 54

Los Angeles Rams 0 – Washington Commanders 0

What Actually Happened

(12:14) 6-J.Hekker punts 33 yards to WAS 21, Center-44-J.McQuaide, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.94 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +3.16 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 54, worth -2.79 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

PUNT -0.45 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 16, worth -0.45 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model