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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Washington Commanders 4th & 4 at the 49

Washington Commanders 20 – Los Angeles Rams 10

What Actually Happened

(:24) 5-T.Way punts 47 yards to LA 2, Center-57-N.Sundberg. 22-T.Johnson pushed ob at LA 8 for 6 yards (57-N.Sundberg).

The Three Options

GO -0.11 EP
Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +1.44 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 49, worth -1.53 EP
KICK -0.27 EP
  • 31% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.70 EP
  • 69% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 49, worth -1.58 EP
PUNT -0.12 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 14, worth -0.12 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model