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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 2 at the 51

Los Angeles Rams 17 – Washington Commanders 20

What Actually Happened

(2:39) 6-J.Hekker punts 45 yards to WAS 6, Center-44-J.McQuaide, downed by LA-58-C.Littleton.

The Three Options

GO +0.42 EP
Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +2.89 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 51, worth -2.41 EP
KICK -1.11 EP
  • 26% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.49 EP
  • 74% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 49, worth -2.41 EP
PUNT +0.09 EP
What Happened
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 14, worth +0.09 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.32 EP