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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 15 at the 22

Los Angeles Rams 17 – Washington Commanders 20

What Actually Happened

(7:21) 4-G.Zuerlein 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker.

The Three Options

GO +0.21 EP
  • 20% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 7, worth +5.31 EP
  • 80% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 22, worth -1.07 EP
KICK +1.38 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 88% chance to make a 39-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.77 EP
  • 12% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 32, worth -1.52 EP
PUNT -0.39 EP
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.39 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model