Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Green Bay Packers 4th & 17 at the 66

Green Bay Packers 7 – Cincinnati Bengals 21

What Actually Happened

(6:13) 8-J.Vogel punts 54 yards to CIN 12, Center-61-B.Goode. 12-A.Erickson pushed ob at CIN 39 for 27 yards (8-J.Vogel). PENALTY on CIN-26-J.Shaw, Offensive Holding, 6 yards, enforced at CIN 12.

The Three Options

GO -1.70 EP

28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +2.75 EP
72% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 66, worth -3.42 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model