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CIN Away

Cincinnati Bengals

HC Marvin Lewis
@
GB Home

Green Bay Packers

HC Mike McCarthy
Sunday 2017-09-24 · 16:25 Lambeau Field, Green Bay US ☀️ Clear Spread 7.0 O/U 47.5

Win Probability

CIN
28.0%
GB
72.0%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • GB offense: +0.157 EPA/play over its last 8 games (2nd in the league)
  • QB edge to GB: Aaron Rodgers (GB) +0.273 vs Andy Dalton (CIN) -0.018 EPA/dropback
  • CIN offense: -0.085 EPA/play over its last 8 games (23rd in the league)
  • GB defense: +0.077 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (29th in the league)
  • CIN defense: -0.084 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (8th in the league)
  • CIN on 3 more days rest than GB

Predicted Final Score

CIN 20
–
GB 27
Projected margin: GB by 7 Projected total: 47

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 3

CIN

Tyler Eifert TE Out Back
Trey Hopkins G Out Knee
John Ross WR Out Knee
Derron Smith S Questionable Ankle
Michael Johnson DE Questionable Concussion
KeiVarae Russell CB Questionable Hamstring

GB

David Bakhtiari T Doubtful Hamstring
Kentrell Brice S Doubtful Groin
Randall Cobb WR Doubtful Chest
Mike Daniels DT Doubtful Hip
Davon House CB Doubtful Quadricep
Nick Perry LB Doubtful Hand
Jake Ryan LB Doubtful Hamstring
Jordy Nelson WR Questionable Quadricep
Bryan Bulaga T Questionable Ankle

Pulled fresh for 2017 week 3 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

CIN 24
–
GB 27

Prediction missed by 4 pts on margin, 4 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 09:40 TD CIN (9:40) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass short middle to 18-A.Green for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CIN 6 – GB 0
  • Q1 07:51 TD GB (7:51) 12-A.Rodgers pass short right to 84-L.Kendricks for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. CIN 7 – GB 6
  • Q2 12:35 TD CIN (12:35) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass short left to 25-G.Bernard for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CIN 13 – GB 7
  • Q2 10:20 TD CIN (10:20) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short left intended for 87-J.Nelson INTERCEPTED by 22-W.Jackson at CIN 25. 22-W.Jackson for 75 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CIN 20 – GB 7
  • Q3 10:00 TD GB (10:00) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short middle to 87-J.Nelson for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. CIN 21 – GB 13
  • Q4 14:47 FG GB (14:47) 2-M.Crosby 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-61-B.Goode, Holder-8-J.Vogel. CIN 21 – GB 17
  • Q4 03:51 FG CIN (3:51) 4-R.Bullock 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber. CIN 24 – GB 17
  • Q4 00:21 TD GB (:21) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short right to 87-J.Nelson for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CIN 24 – GB 23
  • Q5 06:26 FG GB (6:26) 2-M.Crosby 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-61-B.Goode, Holder-8-J.Vogel. CIN 24 – GB 27

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 CIN 4th & 14 at the 47
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 31%

    (3:41) 10-K.Huber punts 40 yards to GB 7, Center-46-C.Harris. 11-T.Davis to GB 40 for 33 yards (42-C.Fejedelem, 56-H.Nickerson).

  • Q1 GB 4th & 17 at the 67
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (2:25) 8-J.Vogel punts 27 yards to CIN 40, Center-61-B.Goode, out of bounds.

  • Q2 GB 4th & 17 at the 66
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (6:13) 8-J.Vogel punts 54 yards to CIN 12, Center-61-B.Goode. 12-A.Erickson pushed ob at CIN 39 for 27 yards (8-J.Vogel). PENALTY on CIN-26-J.Shaw, Offensive Holding, 6 yards, enforced at CIN 12.

  • Q2 CIN 4th & 2 at the 65
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.32 EP
    p(convert) 60%

    (2:52) 10-K.Huber punts 48 yards to GB 17, Center-46-C.Harris. 11-T.Davis to GB 27 for 10 yards (46-C.Harris; 50-J.Evans). PENALTY on GB-51-K.Fackrell, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at GB 27.

  • Q2 GB 4th & 14 at the 87
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (1:54) 8-J.Vogel punts 61 yards to CIN 26, Center-61-B.Goode. 12-A.Erickson to CIN 37 for 11 yards (48-J.Thomas; 24-Q.Rollins).

  • Q2 CIN 4th & 2 at the 55
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.44 EP
    p(convert) 58%

    (:45) 10-K.Huber punts 45 yards to GB 10, Center-46-C.Harris, fair catch by 11-T.Davis.

  • Q2 GB 4th & 17 at the 87
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (:11) 8-J.Vogel punts 51 yards to CIN 36, Center-61-B.Goode. 22-W.Jackson MUFFS catch, touched at CIN 36, RECOVERED by GB-24-Q.Rollins at CIN 33. 24-Q.Rollins to CIN 33 for no gain (22-W.Jackson).

  • Q3 CIN 4th & 19 at the 63
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24%

    (7:50) 10-K.Huber punts 48 yards to GB 15, Center-46-C.Harris. 11-T.Davis to GB 23 for 8 yards (87-C.Uzomah).

  • Q3 GB 4th & 19 at the 86
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (5:36) 8-J.Vogel punts 53 yards to CIN 33, Center-61-B.Goode. 12-A.Erickson to GB 47 for 20 yards (83-J.Janis).

  • Q3 CIN 4th & 15 at the 30
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24% p(FG) 74%

    (2:46) 4-R.Bullock 48 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber.

  • Q4 GB 4th & 3 at the 10
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.51 EP
    p(convert) 48% p(FG) 96%

    (14:47) 2-M.Crosby 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-61-B.Goode, Holder-8-J.Vogel.

  • Q4 GB 4th & 5 at the 59
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.31 EP
    p(convert) 46%

    (9:55) 8-J.Vogel punts 50 yards to CIN 9, Center-61-B.Goode. 12-A.Erickson to CIN 9 for no gain.

  • Q4 CIN 4th & 2 at the 28 late-game
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.47 EP
    p(convert) 55% p(FG) 78%

    (3:51) 4-R.Bullock 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber.