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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 2 at the 65

Cincinnati Bengals 21 – Green Bay Packers 7

What Actually Happened

(2:52) 10-K.Huber punts 48 yards to GB 17, Center-46-C.Harris. 11-T.Davis to GB 27 for 10 yards (46-C.Harris; 50-J.Evans). PENALTY on GB-51-K.Fackrell, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at GB 27.

The Three Options

GO -0.68 EP
Model's Pick
  • 60% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 63, worth +1.35 EP
  • 40% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 65, worth -3.70 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

PUNT -1.00 EP
What Happened
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 23, worth -1.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.32 EP