Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Green Bay Packers 4th & 14 at the 87

Green Bay Packers 7 – Cincinnati Bengals 21

(1:54) 8-J.Vogel punts 61 yards to CIN 26, Center-61-B.Goode. 12-A.Erickson to CIN 37 for 11 yards (48-J.Thomas; 24-Q.Rollins).

The Three Options

GO -2.77 EP

33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 73, worth +1.31 EP
67% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 87, worth -4.78 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (104 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model