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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 2 at the 55

Cincinnati Bengals 21 – Green Bay Packers 7

What Actually Happened

(:45) 10-K.Huber punts 45 yards to GB 10, Center-46-C.Harris, fair catch by 11-T.Davis.

The Three Options

GO +0.15 EP
Model's Pick
  • 58% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +1.93 EP
  • 42% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 55, worth -2.36 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -0.29 EP
What Happened
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 16, worth -0.29 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.44 EP